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Sunday, March 04, 2007

Portfolio 3-Mar-2007

Have been more than a month I did not update my blog. Here's how my latest portfolio looks like...

KLSE has taken a sharp correction since last week and as a result, at least RM13k of my portfolio value being wiped off within just a few days. I called this as a correction because I still believe the bullish trend is intact and such a retreat is expected in a bull run. The fundamentals of our economy has not changed much, at least not to a point that is justifiable for a major market melt down. Although I still believe in my earlier prediction that in future ~6 months or so a real bad economy (both global and local) will start to surface, I am quite optimistic on near term market. As such, I really hope that this correction will be very short and market can rebound and pick up its earlier strength as fast as possible. In short, I believe we have not yet reached the peak of the bull. However, if the poor sentiment keep on circulating KLSE for any longer than 1-2 months from now, I will have no choice but to start dispose all my equity holding. I foresee people will start feel the pinch of the slowing growth of US economy when entering 2nd half of the year.

In last month, I indeed disposed majority of Tanjong share. The average selling price of Tanjong was done at RM15.20. It was not the highest price that I managed to sell, but I am quite relieved that I still made about 12% of profit from the investment excluding dividend. Part of the proceeding was used to purchase 1000 units Tenaga at RM12.30. The decision to purchase Tenaga was driven by its outstanding quarterly result announced recently. Nonetheless, right after my purchase of Tenaga, its rise of share price came to a halt. It seems that probably some funds were starting to dispose it to cope for profits.

Another purchase made last week was 2000 units Tawin at RM1.50. I picked up Tawin in view of its undemanding P/E of 3.8 compare to its peers e.g. Metrod. I bet only a small amount of Tawin as I view it as a speculative move in hope for rising copper price and rumour of potential takeover.

In coming a week or so of market "correction", I am eyeing to buy in more Magnum at price below RM2.80. I still believe Magnum has a lot values in it and those big guns buying at price higher than RM2.80 will not be such an idiot to see their investment eroding away. It is just a timing problem for them to "unlock" its value and take profit of it. Just hold on and perhaps enjoy a few sticks of "Magnum" ice-cream while waiting for the show to put on stage.... hahaa

Despite the recent retreat of stock market, my investment in Public Mutual PBOND and PIBOND are continuing register a steady return. Both have grown ~5.5% and ~4.2% respectively in exactly 6 months. My unit trust agent has been pushing me to switch to equity fund about a month ago and I am relieved that I did not do that. Otherwise, I would have suffered great lost as many of the equity funds are dropping sharply following the market. Although many has said (and practiced) that when investing in stock market or mutual fund, we ought to follow the big market trend. However, I believe strongly in the theory of contrarian, which tell me why majority of peoples loose big time in investing while only a handful of them make huge profits!



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