Portfolio 27-Jan-2007

Despite KLCI continues to inch up 1.93% to 1169.89 points this week, my portfolio has grown 9.3% (or RM10,480), beating KLCI by a huge margin! In my memory, this is my most impressive gain in a week.

REIT has risen a lot since last week. AXREIT jumped from the lowest RM1.62 to now all time high of RM1.85, gaining ~14% in just one week. Similarly, STAREIT also managed to chunk out a weekly gain of ~12%. The sharp increase in REIT price in my opinion is driven by active foreign participation, as can been seen by the supported trading volume. As predicted, with the strengthening trend of RM, all the MREIT prices are due to be revised by market.

However, my view for its coming few weeks is most MREITs will rise to a saturated point and maintain until there are further good news from the government. Also, even though the government said they are comfortable with current RM exchange rate, I doubt they will let it continue to rise beyond RM3.40. If both AXREIT and STAREIT managed to hit near RM2.00 and RM1.00 respectively, I am willing to let go all my stake of it. They are no longer appeal to me from the yielding perspective and to lock-in the profit now is a much wiser move.

Another strong mover in my portfolio this week is Magnum. My stance on Magnum has not changed, I will hold on Magnum until the end of this bull market or until the much anticipated capital return being announced. Since my entry price of Magnum is relatively low, I am willing to take this bet.

Along the week, I have also added 1000 units Tenaga @ RM12.30 into my portfolio. For me, this is purely a speculative move. According to OSK, the PER for FY07 at current price is ~20.5, with estimated EPS of 59 sen. To me, this is ridiculously high and from fundamental point of view, I rather dump my money into Tanjong than Tenaga. However, Tenaga is a much more active counter than Tanjong and given the latest impressive earning report in such a bullish market, I am quite confident Tenaga will continue to rise in tandem with market. This is sort of my "hit n run" strategy for the time being.

Portfolio 20-Jan-2007

My portfolio underperformed KLCI this week, where KLCI rose 2.54% while my portfolio return dropped from 14.3% to 13.8%. This is mainly due to the lost suffered from AXREIT, which I am aggressively picking up the stock lately.

Along the week, I have also made 2 additional purchases of AXREIT, at 2000 units each time with price RM1.66 and RM1.62 respectively. The purchase at RM1.66 was a mistake, as I have keyed in wrongly the figure. My intended price to purchase was indeed RM1.62. Nonetheless, I was relieved that the cost of my stupid mistake was not huge. This serves as a lesson for me to be more careful when placing an overnight order in future. AXREIT will be announcing its quarterly result together with the half yearly income distribution very soon and I think that is the reason its share price jumped back to RM1.65 at the very last hour of trading on Friday. With expected half yearly income distribution of ~6 sen, the yield at RM1.62 is an impressive 7.4% p.a. I am confident that the stock will gain more attention from foreign investors as its liquidity being improved by public placing of 50 millions new shares in near future and along with the strengthening trend of RM.

As I am exiting the "bull" market slowly by shifting my holding in equity to more secured and stable instrument like REIT and bond fund, I am also considering setting up a small amount of "hit n run" speculative portfolio, say RM5,000 to RM10,000 and buy into volatile counters such as warrant or call warrant to take profit of the current bullish trend. It will be a very risky portfolio and fundamental of these stocks are not among the important selection criteria. I will be likely picking up counters that are very linked to the KLCI index and play with the fluctuation. As of current, I am still considering it and fighting with myself as how much money to set aside and willing to lose.

Will it be too late to enter market now? What is your say?

Portfolio 13-Jan-2007

Finally, this is my first portfolio update of year 2007. Compare to my previous portfolio which is about a month ago, there has been some major changes.

First, I have disposed all the non "core" investment counters, such as MTD and KASSET. I would like to start off my new year portfolio which is more streamlined and focus on only few selected counters. MTD was disposed at RM2.10 per share while KASSET was sold at RM2.55 averagely. From the trade of MTD, I roughly made a profit of 16% (or RM550) while for KASSET, all the 266 units were essentially obtained for free, deriving from the share distribution of IGB held previously. I am quite satisfied with these trades.

Secondly, I have topped up my investment in AXREIT while added STAREIT into my stock selection. For the latter, I strongly think that market has under valued it at current price of ~83 sen. Although there are few drawbacks on STAREIT which I have posted here previously, with its recent asset acquisition of The Residences (story here), its outlook has changed to be more positive. Furthermore, I also believe the Malaysian REIT investment scene will be much improved in this year, while I am still expecting the stock market to have a sharp correction (hopefully not a hard crash) in very near future. With the potentially brighter future of REIT (related story here), I reckon shifting from common equity to REIT is a safer bet.

On Magnum, there is a very good perspective of view that I strongly recommend it to every Magnum investors (link is here). My personal take is to hold onto it as long as I can, hopefully until the day that all the retail investors are rewarded accordingly (by capital repayment...etc) but not until the worst when bull has finally died and bear is ruling. I have confidence that the best is in making rapidly in view of recent high volume surge of the counter.

As for Tanjong, I start losing patience with it. Time is running out and it doesn't seem to move along with the major market. Moreover, the overdue IPA issue with Tenaga is still hanging. There is no announcement and the fact that Tanjong is heavily rely on this income stream makes me feel very uneasy. I think I will very soon make some moves on Tanjong.